Hierarchical Ecological Models: An Effective Tool for Climate Management

The stability of ecological communities and the conservation of biodiversity, both in Spain and globally, are increasingly threatened by the intense impacts of climate change. Researchers at the Global Biodiversity and Change Research Center at UAM and other institutions are working on the development of hierarchical ecological models, which allow for the measurement of biodiversity vulnerability and, thus, the design of appropriate forest management and restoration strategies.
Viewer of a Hierarchical Ecological Model applied to a specific area in Spain, combining data at different scales

Forests are cornerstones of the European bioeconomy and contribute decisively to mitigating climate change. Their trees, along with the living organisms they coexist with, feed on carbon from the air, storing it in wood, plant matter, and beneath the soil. Without forests and trees, much of that carbon would remain in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas whose reduction is a critical part of one of humanity’s most pressing challenges: the climate crisis.

The Iberian Peninsula is home to about 50% of Europe’s species of plants and vertebrates. It hosts nearly 6,500 species of vascular plants and one of the highest species diversification rates in the world. However, recent assessments predict an intensification of climate change effects on biodiversity in the region, particularly in Mediterranean climate areas.

Protecting and preserving biodiversity in forest ecosystems is a crucial and urgent challenge in this scenario. Regional forest management and restoration programs require robust information on the composition and spatial patterns of plant species, as well as monitoring conflicts between forest biodiversity conservation and other opposing human interests. This is where ecological models come into play.

Rubén G. Mateo, a botanist and researcher at the Global Biodiversity and Change Research Center at UAM (CIBC-UAM), works on the Connect2restore project, “Towards a national restoration plan considering connectivity and vulnerability to climate change,” which is developing innovative tools for restoring Spanish forests. “We believe these tools can support efficient ecological restoration through optimized and realistic biodiversity forecasting, applied to different scenarios of connectivity and future climate change. This would allow for the development of novel, dynamic restoration plans in the context of climate change, as opposed to the more static restoration plans currently in place,” the researcher says.

The models being developed by the research team gain further strength when used alongside other sources of information, such as field observations, expert criteria, or remote sensing. For this reason, NGOs, foundations, scientific societies, and regional administrations are involved in this project, contributing their concerns and suggestions regarding the necessary requirements for the efficient implementation of these models. At the same time, they incorporate the knowledge provided by these models early on for decision-making.

“We are convinced of the value of building connections and alliances with the public sector, academia, civil society, and other stakeholders. Our project is enriched by their input, helping to create management solutions that are increasingly tailored to current ecosystems, which can then be useful for designing more effective conservation and ecological restoration strategies,” Rubén affirms.

The project’s results will be available on a map server on the website of the SABINA research group (SpatiAl ecology, BiodIversity conservation, and New modelling Approaches), led by Rubén, where any user can download models and gather information about which species are most recommended for use in a local restoration plan in a specific region, considering the dynamic and challenging context of climate change.

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Project Reference:

Connect2restore (TED2021-129589B-I00) is a project funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation (State Research Agency) and by “European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR”

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Academic Institutions Participating in this Research:

Autonomous University of Madrid (Rubén G. Mateo, Juan Carlos Moreno, Francisco Lara, Manolo Macía, Juan Antonio Calleja, Teresa Goicolea)

University of Castilla-La Mancha (Virgilio Gómez-Rubio)

University of Córdoba (Manuel de la Estrella)

University of Lausanne (Antoine Guisan, Antoine Adde, Olivier Broenniman)

Polytechnic University of Madrid (Juan Ignacio García Viñas, Aitor Gastón, Pepa Aroca)

University of Valencia (Ricardo Garilleti)

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News Author: Joaquín Acevedo

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