Between 1939 and 1995, with the main objective of protecting the soil against erosion and preventing floods, more than 4 million hectares were afforested in Spain. However, the result was often conifer-dominated forests with low species diversity and high vulnerability to climate change. Replacing formations with mixed forests is therefore of utmost importance and would greatly benefit biodiversity and society.

The Connect2restore project contemplates a multidisciplinary approach to generate innovative tools applicable in ecological restoration. They are based on the pioneering combination of different aspects:

1. Improving predictions and assessments of vulnerability to climate change through outstanding innovations: 1.1) species distribution models (~500 woody and threatened plant species) combining three reliable techniques; 1.2) multi-scale hierarchical framework (Spain and Europe), which has proven to be more efficient than classical methods; 1.3) updated climate variables and future scenarios related to the recent IPCC 6th report; and 1.4) implementation of community-level modeling tools to predict potential species richness and composition.
2. Optimising the contribution of ecological connectivity analyses to forest restoration planning, identifying priority areas and corridors for restoration by considering: 2.1) the dynamic connectivity between the current and future distribution of different forest types; and 2.2) innovative ways of assessing information on riparian forests and ravines.
3. Integration of different organizations during the development of the project, e.g., the NGO for nature conservation WWF-Spain, the government of the Community of Madrid, and the Spanish Botanical Society, as well as a multidisciplinary team of botanists, ecologists, engineers, mathematicians and zoologists.

Our hypothesis is that these tools, which offer optimized plant biodiversity predictions (more realistic than the existing ones), applied to different scenarios of ecological connectivity and future climate change, will favor the design of efficient ecological restoration plans. Novel and dynamic restoration plans could be developed, compared to the current static ones, which do not consider future climate projections and connectivity analyses.

The main result will be a website with several applications for sustainable forest management, offering different multilayer maps revealing priority areas for restoration, and a selection of recommended woody plant species per pixel (~1 km2). The different stakeholders (European Union, regional and national administrations, NGOs, research centers, etc.) managing these forest ecosystems will be the main beneficiaries.

In the long term, if restoration plans are developed to generate more resilient forests, biodiversity and society (bioeconomy, recreation, climate regulation, human health, water and timber supply) will be the ultimate beneficiaries. The different approaches proposed here will not only potentially reduce costs, but also optimize the accuracy and appropriateness of the derived assessments. All these aspects fit perfectly with the definition of “nature-based solutions”, a priority for the European Union.

Connect2restore (TED2021-129589B-I00) is funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Agencia Estatal de Investigación) and by “European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR”.